Tinubu using ‘cocktail of trial-and-error’ to run dysfunctional Nigeria: Atiku
Nigeria is not working: One year of Tinubu is a cocktail of trial-and-error economic policies.
On May 29, 2023, President Bola Tinubu raised the hopes of Nigerians with his pledge to “remodel our economy to bring about growth and development through job creation, food security and an end of extreme poverty.” Since then, Tinubu has also spoken about growing the economy at double-digit rates to US$1 trillion in six years, ending misery, and bringing immediate relief to Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis. On listening to this, Nigerians must have breathed a sigh of relief after their experience with ex-President Buhari’s 8 years of economic misadventure.
Tinubu laid out no plans for the ‘remodeling’ of the economy but soon embarked on a cocktail of policies to achieve it. In May 2023, he eliminated PMS subsidies, and a month later, the CBN implemented a new foreign exchange policy that unified the multiple official FX windows into a single official market. More policies followed in rapid succession: the tightening of monetary policy to reduce Naira liquidity, a hike in monetary policy rates, the introduction of cost-reflective electricity tariff, and a cybersecurity tax.
Predictably, 12 months on, Tinubu’s pledge of growing the economy and ending misery remains unfulfilled. His actions or inactions have significantly worsened Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. Nigeria remains a struggling economy and is more fragile today than it was a year ago. Indeed, all the economic ills – joblessness, poverty, and misery – which defined the Buhari-led administration have only exacerbated. Africa’s leading economy has slipped to the 4th position lagging behind Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa. Citizens’ hopes have been dashed (and not renewed contrary to the propaganda of the administration) as Nigeria’s economic woes have multiplied.
How and why did we get here?
In my press statement on the state of our economy, earlier this year, I expressed my concerns about the downside risks of unleashing reforms without sequencing; without any ideas on how to implement them; and without any regards to their potential and real devastating consequences. Implementing policies without proper planning and a clear destination is nothing other than trial-and-error economics.
My concerns have not diminished. I will focus on just four areas to underscore those downside risks associated with Tinubu’s reform measures and their dire consequences on Nigeria’s medium to long-term growth and development.
First, President Tinubu’s policies do not create prosperity. Instead, they pauperize the poor and bankrupt the rich. They spare no one. Nigerian citizens, the majority of whom are poor, are going through the worst cost-of-living crisis since the infamous structural adjustment programme of the 1980s. The annual inflation rate at 33.69% is the highest in nearly 3 decades. Food prices are unbearably higher than what ordinary citizens can afford as food inflation soared to 40.53% in April, the highest in more than 15 years.
Nigerian citizens have to pay 114% more for a bag of rice, 107% more for a bag of flour, and 150% more in transport fares relative to May 2023. Today, in some locations, motorists are paying 305% more for a litre of fuel. Yet, on a minimum wage of the equivalent of US$23 per month, Nigerian workers are among the lowest wage earners in the world. Tinubu had the ‘courage’ to remove subsidy on PMS and impose additional taxes on his people but lacks the compassion to raise the minimum wage or implement a social investment programme that would reduce the levels of vulnerability, and deprivation of workers and their families.
Second, President Tinubu’s policies create a hostile environment for businesses, big or small. The private sector is overwhelmed by Tinubu’s dismal policies and overburdened by his failure to address the policy
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