Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has revealed a sharp spike in petrol imports in March, underscoring Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign fuel supply despite improving domestic refining capacity.
The regulator disclosed that importation of Premium Motor Spirit rose by 96.7 per cent within one month, climbing from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March 2026.
The figures, contained in the agency’s latest monthly fact sheet, point to renewed pressure on the country’s downstream sector amid ongoing adjustments in supply dynamics.
The surge in imports came even as local production recorded notable growth, driven largely by domestic refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which continues to expand its footprint in the market.
According to the data, locally refined petrol supply increased from 30.5 million litres per day in February to 34.2 million litres per day in March, reinforcing the growing role of indigenous refining in meeting national demand.
However, the increase in both import and domestic output only translated into a marginal rise in total supply, which moved from 39.5 million litres per day to 40.1 million litres per day within the period under review.
In contrast, petrol consumption dropped significantly from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, suggesting weakened demand, likely triggered by persistently high pump prices.
Industry data indicated that fuel prices surged during the period, with the Dangote refinery reportedly adjusting its petrol price multiple times to as high as N1,275 per litre.
Further analysis showed that stock sufficiency declined sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, signalling tightening inventory levels despite the near doubling of imports.
The latest figures highlight a complex transition phase in Nigeria’s fuel market, characterised by rising imports, strengthening domestic supply, and declining demand.
The development also reflects recent policy shifts by the regulator, which had initially curtailed the issuance of petrol import licences to encourage local refining but later resumed approvals to avert supply shortages and maintain energy security.
Beyond petrol, the report showed a sharp drop in diesel supply, which fell from 24.4 million litres per day in February to 10.3 million litres per day in March.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas supply remained steady at 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with increased local contribution, while domestic gas supply rose slightly from 4.771 billion to 4.888 billion standard cubic feet per day.
The authority also noted progress in refining infrastructure, disclosing that the second train of the Waltersmith Refinery has commenced hydrocarbon introduction, signalling gradual expansion of the country’s refining capacity.
Analysts say the combined impact of large-scale projects and modular refinery growth could, over time, reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, even as short-term reliance persists.