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Ajayi’s zone holds ace for Akeredolu, Jegede
•1.8m register, 1.4m to vote
•Candidates’ strengths, weaknesses,
•We’ll accept poll result— candidates
•Facts and figures
TODAY’S governorship election in Ondo state has generated controversies like no other in the history of the state. The spate of thuggery, blood letting and violence in the last one month ahead of today’s contest has reached a crescendo that may result to a low turn out of voters in today’s exercise.
The contest has been dubbed a three horse race as the incumbent, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress, APC; Mr. Eyitayo Jegede of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Mr. Agboola Ajayi of the Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, are seen as formidable gladiators in the contest.
With a population of about 4 million people spread across the 18 Local Government Areas of the state, voters in the Sunshine state would file out today in the 3009 polling units across the council areas to elect the next occupant of the Alagbaka Government House.
1.8m register, 1.4m to vote
The number of registered voters was put at 1, 822, 346 while 1, 478,460 of them had Permanent Voters Cards, PVCs, as 343,886 PVCs were uncollected. The implication, therefore, is that only 1,478,460 voters who collected the PVCs are expected to visit the various voting points to exercise their franchise.
The zone to produce governor
There is a sentiment over which of the three senatorial districts should produce the next governor.
While those in the North want another term for their son, Akeredolu, some politicians in Ondo South argue that it is the turn of the zone since the North had produced the governor for 12 years, including Akeredolu and that the Central had its slot for eight years under Olusegun Mimiko, while the South had six years under late Olusegun Agagu.
It’s a three horse race
The 1983 political drama when the then Deputy Governor of the state, Chief Akin Omoboriowo, chose to contest against his boss, the late Chief Michael Ajasin is playing out in the state today. Ajayi, the incumbent deputy governor, has openly challenged his boss, Akeredolu to a contest. However none of the three major contestants in the race can confidently beat his chest that he would win the election. Even as power of incumbency may count for Akeredolu, nobody is absolutely sure anymore.
Not until few months ago, the battle for the soul of the state was between the APC and the PDP like it was in 2016 when the incumbent, Akeredolu slugged it out with Jegede..
The scenario however changed when Agboola threw his hat into the ring to contest which resulted in a lot scheming and an attempt to impeach him which failed. This is the first time a deputy governor would be contesting for the office of the governor while still in office as deputy to the governor who himself is a candidate in the same election.
Only three out of 17 political parties cleared visible
Of the 17 candidates cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) only three are major contenders while others are just pretenders. No doubt the manner the three candidates were crisscrossing the state to market themselves showed that the heat was on them and none of them knew where the pendulum would swing today.
Interestingly, the three major candidates are from each of the three senatorial districts in the state which has made the contest open for any of them to win. Akeredolu is from the Northern Senatorial district, Ajayi from the Southern senatorial district, while Jegede is from the Central Senatorial district. Each of the senatorial districts has six local governments to make 18 in all.
Edo poll result rattles Akeredolu, boosts opposition’s chances
The outcome of the September 19 governorship poll in Edo State has given the opposition parties in Ondo state hope that the votes will count today. Political analysts posit that the result of the Edo election has further energised the opposition parties that they can turn the table against Akeredolu.
After the Edo election, the effort Akeredolu put into his electioneering campaign was an indication that the election which he thought would be a walk over may eventually consume him. The apprehension in the party, both at the state and national level occasioned the several meetings between Akeredolu and his colleague governors led by Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State.
Akeredolu may win 14 LGAs
But all said and done,Akeredolu in today’s election is a step ahead of the two other contestants. It looks dicey on the surface but events in the last one week across the state showed that Akeredolu would win not less than 14 councils leaving Jegede and Ajayi with four councils to share. If this happens, then history would have repeated itself. In 2016, Akeredolu won 14 councils while Olusola Oke and Mr. Jegede shared the remaining four councils equally.
Zones and influencers Ondo North
This senatorial district has 411, 188 number of registered voters. It’s made up of six councils namely Akoko North East (66, 290); Akoko North West (58,505); Akoko South East (32,763); Akoko South West (87,351); Owo (102,711); and Ose (63,568). The candidate of the APC, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu hails from this zone. Akeredolu is very much on ground and would coast home to victory with nothing less than 70% of the total votes cast in the zone.
Akeredolu is the only candidate from this zone. Some political analysts argued that the mistake made by the two other parties was to leave Ondo North completely free for the incumbent governor by not picking a deputy governorship candidate from the zone.
The zone had the largest number of governorship aspirants during the party’s primary but they have all collapsed their structures after Akeredolu won to support him.
Those who will swing the votes for Akeredolu in the zone include the national leader of the dissolved Unity group who was a former deputy governor, Alhaji Ali Olanusi; Senator Ajayi Boroffice representing the zone at the Senate; the son of late Governor Adebayo Adefarati, Gboyega Adefarati; a serving commissioner; a former speaker and the current Director General of Akeredolu campaign organisation, Rt Hon Victor Olabimtan; serving national assembly members, Hon Ade Adeogun, Hon Timilehin Adelegbe and Hon Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo. Vanguard gathered that many of the national assembly members had a rethink and joined Akeredolu when it was obvious that all the odds favoured his re-election and in a bid to safeguard their own re-election, they reluctantly joined the train.
Interestingly, aside all the APC lawmakers in the national assembly, others in the SDP, Hon Tajudeen Adefioye and that of the ADC, Hon Abiola Makinde have openly identified with his reelection bid but didn’t defect to the APC. Also all executive council members, party executives, political appointees would want continuity for Akeredolu to preserve their daily bread.
This is a no go area for the two other candidates of PDP and ZLP as the leaders in the zone have unanimously queued behind their son, Rotimi Akeredolu. But senator Bode Olajumoke from Ose would pull some votes for Jegede while the likes of Dennis Niyi- Alonge would equally pull some string. But the bottom line is that Akeredolu would win with a wide margin in his senatorial district as the people of the zone would also want to complete their own two terms of eight years after Mimiko from the Central broke the jinx. No doubt, Akeredolu would have the best election result from his Ondo North zone.
Ondo Central
This is the zone with the highest number of registered voters put at 559,374. The zone hosts the state capital and is made up of Akure South (207 384); Akure North (60,744); Ifedore (54,640); Idanre (64,438); Ondo West (131,847); and Ondo East (40,321). The immediate past governor, Dr Mimiko is from this zone and he served two terms while the candidate of the PDP, Mr Jegede is from the senatorial district. The senatorial district is Jegede’s stronghold but he may only win in Akure South while other areas such as Akure North, Idanre, Ifedore, Ondo West and Ondo East may go the way of either the APC or ZLP. Those who will swing votes for Governor Akeredolu from the zone include the Minister of State for Niger/Delta Affairs, Tayo Alasoadura, a native of Iju/Itaogbolu in Akure North Local Government Area of the state, the Commissioner for Works, Saka Ogunleye; the current Secretary to the State Government SSG,Hon Tayo Oluwatuyi; the former occupier of the seat, Hon Sunday Abegunde and the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Mr. Bamidele Oloyelogun who wants to go to the House of Representatives. The state party chairman, Engineer Ade Adetimehin and the commissioner for Culture and Tourism, Yemi Olowolabi will lead other political appointees to deliver Idanre for Akeredolu even with the support of the SDP’s only House of Representatives member in the National Assembly, Hon. Tajudeen Adefisoye and that of the ADC, Hon Abiola Makinde.
Also, political history has shown that electorate in Akure South are not predominantly indigenes of Akure as people from across the 18 council areas are working in the metropolis and would not cast their votes based on sentiments, but on the reality on ground which will favour Akeredolu following his performance in the state capital.
Ondo South
This is the zone with the second largest number of registered voters with 508,004. It is made up of Ile Oluji Okeigbo (54,391); Odigbo (109,797); Irele (57,651); Okitipupa (92,945); Ilaje (126, 749); and Ese Odo (66,481). This zone used to be the stronghold of the the PDP during the administration of the late Dr Olusegun Agagu but things have changed now. The candidate of the third force, Hon Agboola Ajayi of the Zenith Labour Party hails from this senatorial district. Leaders of the zone have consistently voiced it out that it was their turn to produce the next governor until the incumbent was re-elected as the APC candidate. The likes of Olusola Oke, Isaacs Kekemeke, Ife Oyedele, Jimi Odimayo, Jimoh Ibrahim have since buried their ambition and preferred to wait till 2024 after Akeredolu’s second term in office if he wins. They vowed to give Akeredolu over 60% of the vote so as to get his support after his second term in office. They argued that it would be unfair to allow Jegede from the Central Senatorial district take over from Akeredolu now after Mimiko, who is from same zone had spent two terms of eight years in office. Many of the leaders have disowned their kinsman, the ZLP candidate, Mr. Ajayi, saying that his platform- ZLP was a third term agenda for Mimiko.
While Ajayi will have a good outing with political appointees led by the Information and Orientation Commissioner, Donald Ojogo, others vowed to deliver the Ese- odo council area for Akeredolu.
Also, those who are expected to swing majority of the votes for Akeredolu in Ilaje include Olusola Oke, the running mate to Akeredolu, Hon Lucky Ayedatiwa and other political appointees. The likes of Education commissioner, Pastor Femi Agagu, the younger brother to the former governor; SUBEB Chairman, Princess Oladunni Odu; business mogul, Jimoh lbrahim; Hon Mayowa Akinfolarin; and Hon Albert Akintoye are firmly rooted in their constituencies and can garner significant number of votes for the incumbent governor. The construction of the Ore interchange bridge and the Ondo Lynl Industrial hubs by Akeredolu both in the southern district will pull votes for him from the people whose lives were touched by these two big projects.
Notable personalities that can influence votes in the zone in favour of Jegede include a member of the 2014 National Confab and former commissioner, Chief Sola Ebiseni, former National Vice Chairman South West of the party, Dr Eddy Olafeso; former Senator Boluwaji Kunlere and former information commissioner, Hon John Mafo amongst others who have assured Jegede of reasonable number of votes to counter those coming from Akeredolu’s Northern Senatorial district. Sadly, Jegede’s running mate, Ikengboju Gboluga is not popular and may not bring much for Jegede in terms of votes.
Jegede’s strength and weaknesses
The PDP candidate, Mr Jegede is relying on the structure of the party which is spread across the state. Also the excellent performance of the party in the 2019 general elections, where the party won the presidential election and many seats in the National Assembly, is giving him the confidence that the party can still leverage on this feat. His defeat in 2016 by Akeredolu with over 90,000 votes despite all odds, will be corrected in today’s election according to his aides.
Jegede is also expecting a large number of votes from Ondo South known as his party’s stronghold and where his running mate, Hon Ikengboju Gboluga hails from. The PDP won two out of the three House of Representatives seat in Ondo South. Report also has it that PDP governors across the country will support him both financially and morally. Also, his long time friend, the former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is expected to help him in bankrolling the election. Other PDP governors led by Seyi Makinde of Oyo state are rallying round Jegede hoping to repeat the Edo magic in Ondo today.
His albatross however is the sentiment that he is from the Central Senatorial district where former governor, Mimiko,who has spent eight years also hails from. Voting another governor from same area after Mimiko’s eight years, according to the people from both the north and south senatorial districts was not only unfair but illogical.
Jegede has, however, punctured the sentiment expressed by the people saying that it will be unfair to judge him by his place of origin, but that the people of the state should judge him by what he can offer the state.
The choice of his running mate, Ikengboju Gboluga, a member of the House of Representatives, did not go down well with many of the party leaders within and outside the state. Many had wanted him to pick one of the governorship aspirants who contested the party primary with him but he declined.
Also, although he had denied that there was a rift between him and his benefactor, Mimiko, the frosty relationship between them after the party lost the 2016 election will work against Jegede as he may lose the only two councils; Ondo West and Ondo East which he won in 2016 with the influence of Mimiko.
The master stroke by the ZLP was the choice of the former Commissioner for Works in the state, Mr Gboye Adegbenro from Ifedore council area of the state as the running mate to its candidate, Agboola Ajayi. This was strategic and meant to break into the supposed stronghold of Jegede in his central senatorial district. The collapse of the structures of 11 political parties may also earn some votes for Jegede if the party leaders do not betray him as being speculated.
Agboola Ajayi
His four years tenure as the state deputy governor will help him a lot to garner some votes in the zone which hosts the state capital but the votes will be minimal. Ajayi may not make any meaningful impact in this zone because of the sentiment that Jegede is their son and cannot be abandoned. Ajayi’s deputy, a former Works Commissioner, Engineer Gboye Adegbenro, who is loved by his people in Ifedore and in Idanre will win Ifedore for the ZLP. His choice by the party was to remove the rug off the feet of Jegede and prevent him from having block votes from the central. Dr Kola Ademujimi, the former Chief of Staff to Governor Mimiko and the Director General of the Ajayi campaign organisation will make some impact in favour of Ajayi in his Idanre town.
Also with the help from Dr Olatunji Felder in Okeigbo, Ajayi will get some votes but not enough to upset Akeredolu in both Ilaje and Ile- Oluji/ Okeigbo council areas. Despite all these Ajayi will still win some wards in his Ese Odo councils but will lose in many other major councils in the zone such as Irele, Okitipupa and Odigbo to Akeredolu.
Ajayi is a grassroot politician who rose through the ranks before becoming the deputy governor of the state. He is considered the most qualified and experienced to be the governor having served as a councillor, local government chairman, and a member of the House of Representatives before becoming the deputy governor
Ajayi, in his political journey, had endeared himself to many, especially among the old PDP leaders and members, who later moved to the APC. He was a staunch leader of the PDP before joining Akeredolu in 2016.
His perceived enemies are mainly from the southern senatorial district where he hails from as the leaders there believed if he becomes the governor they would be retired prematurely.
Aside being a cheerful giver, the support he received from the national leader of the ZLP, Dr. Mimiko, has further boosted his chances.
Ajayi’s zone holds ace for Akeredolu, Jegede
Three weeks after winning the hearts of millions of people with its conduct of the Edo governorship election; the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, will today have another opportunity to rewrite the ignoble history inked about it in the past. The encomiums being showered on the umpire are neither because Godwin Obaseki won, nor because the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, now has an opportunity to preside over the affairs of the South-South state for the next four years. No! The new narrative is informed largely by the manner the umpire conducted the exercise in a professional, non-partisan manner.
Today, 1,478,460 registered voters with Permanent Voter Cards would troop to their various polling units spread across the 18 local government areas in the state to elect a new governor following the gradual countdown to the end of first tenure of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress, APC.
Unlike the Edo poll, at least three candidates are capable of garnering sufficient votes to head to Alagbaka (The Ondo Government House) given their popularity and well-oiled structure, put in place for the sole purpose of ensuring victory.
Although the ZLP candidate is seen as a man capable of holding his own on a good day, election pundits see today’s contest as a straight fight to finish between APC’s Akeredolu and PDP’s Jegede. To them, Ajayi would do well to test his popularity and gain sufficient experience of politicking at this level. So, what does victory or defeat mean to the parties with 2023 election cycle already factoring in the nation’s political calculations?